Bitcoin (BTC) may next be a “sell” at at least $110,000 as its new bull cycle plays out, a classic on-chain indicator suggests.
Data from on-chain analytics platform Look Into Bitcoin shows Bitcoin’s “Terminal Price” hinting at a possible six-figure top.
BTC price to six figures next cycle?
As BTC price action circles its highest levels in 18 months, forecasters are already considering how high it could go in the coming months and even years.
After the next block subsidy halving in April 2024, targets include $130,000, with late 2025 being a popular deadline for the next cycle top.
Analyzing its Terminal Price, Look Into Bitcoin creator Philip Swift described its value as a “simple” method of estimating long-term BTC price peaks.
Terminal Price is calculated from Bitcoin’s so-called “Transferred Price” — a value derived by dividing “Coin Days Destroyed” (CDD) by the existing supply.
CDD is a popular metric that measures how many dormant days are reset each time an amount of BTC moves on-chain. It is useful as a gauge of hodler intent and activity.
Bitcoin Terminal Price and Balanced Price chart. Source: Look Into Bitcoin
Created by Checkmate, lead on-chain analyst at data firm Glassnode, Terminal Price comes into play at the top of each BTC price cycle.
Not every all-time high reaches Terminal Price, but BTC/USD did hit the trendline during its 2017 all-time and initial peak in April 2021. The current all-time high of $69,000, seen in November of that year, fell short.
Swift thus suggested that selling “near” Terminal Price would be a suitable policy. Its bear market counterpart, “Balanced Price,” likewise signals useful market bottoms.
Buy near Balanced Price, sell near Terminal Price.
Could it be that simple?#bitcoin cycles. pic.twitter.com/llHytNVuxr
— Philip Swift (@PositiveCrypto) November 10, 2023
As Terminal Price increases with time, $110,000 may ultimately end up a conservative target should the next all-time high occur only later in the next cycle.
Waiting on a Pi Cycle crossover
In further analysis this week, Swift also highlighted the “Pi Cycle Top” indicator as providing reliable long-term high estimates.
Related: CME tops Bitcoin futures OI as ‘real facts’ drive institutional uptake
Pi uses two moving averages for its forecasts, with their crossovers heralding the next high — albeit with just days’ notice.
“The Pi Cycle Top indicator caught so many off-guard last cycle, including myself, by perfectly identifying the top…again! Will it identify the bitcoin top again this cycle?” Swift queried.
Bitcoin Pi Cycle Top annotated chart. Source: Philip Swift/X
This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.
