The second half of June saw an aftershock of the upward momentum from the March banking crisis develop, but failed to breakout the resistance at $31,000. Driven by inflows into the existing large bitcoin ETFs and by prospects for new ETFs that will be available in the coming months, will the bitcoin price succeed in posting a new annual high?
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A decisive monthly closing
Since the beginning of May, bitcoin price was building a gradual retracement towards the major support between $24,000 and $25,000. This was identified as the graphical boundary between the bullish and bearish scenarios. This identification was therefore rightly made since the market offered a powerful rebound, like a textbook chartist case.
Besides, a rebound perhaps too perfect to be credibleespecially since the altcoins are not following and the permabears are calling to short this return to $31,000 aggressively.
But in the history of BTC, bull markets have always started with an outperformance of number one and an increase in its dominance, before several months later, the troops set out to follow General BTC.
It is true that the global-macro context remains very complicated, with underlying inflation still far too resilient in Europe and the United States. This constrained the major Western Central Banks to maintain very restrictive monetary conditions.
What does not worry me is that the big bull markets are always born out of fear, out of fear of a still very difficult fundamental context. Crypto Commander-in-Chief’s Recent Bullish Impulse Has Been Carried by concrete inflows on the main existing bitcoin ETF funds as well as massive news about the upcoming launch of new BTC ETFs from issuers who are the leaders in global high finance.
Ultimately, the annual upward movement in the price of bitcoin retains its well-constructed dimension on a technical level and still shows more than 80% increase since the beginning of the year. On these graphic considerations, I invite you to put under very, very high surveillance the new monthly closing which will be final this Friday, June 30 for the BTC.
If the market manages to hold around $29,000 or $30,000 in the wake of the US inflation release (PCE price index, Friday 2:30 p.m.), then the update of the monthly chart will be binding for the continuation of the medium and long term trend.
Chart made with the TradingView site and which exposes the Japanese candles in monthly bitcoin price data with a logarithmic scale
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Technical analysis makes two short-term chartist assumptions
Let’s now return to the short-term technical analysis of the price of bitcoin which pauses below the resistance at $31,000, the peak of the March banking crisis. Two chartist hypotheses seem possible to me:
A sideways transition sequence around $30,000 before attempting the breakout of resistance at $31,000 and aiming for the next target of $33,000; A retracement towards $28,500 before resuming resistance.
Invalidation of the upside would be a break of the support at $28,500posing a risk of a double top and a return to at least $25,000.
Chart made with the TradingView site and which reveals the weekly and daily Japanese candles of the price of bitcoin
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Vincent Ganne is a market strategist, technical analyst, trainer on the stock market and speaker on BFM Business. With a long experience in the field of analysis, he offers a global approach to financial markets. Both from a macroeconomic point of view and from a microeconomic point of view. Vincent Ganne also uses many aspects of chart analysis with the aim of forecasting trends in financial assets over the medium and long term.
Vincent Gane
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